Global heating market stabilises as boilers hold ground and heat pump recovery begins
BSRIA has released its latest analysis of the global heating sector, revealing a market in transition as economic pressures, energy security concerns and policy direction reshape demand across both boilers and heat pumps.
The analysis draws on three reports: the World Domestic Boilers Market 2026 and World Commercial Boilers Market 2026, alongside the Worldwide Heat Pump Markets 2026. BSRIA’s boiler analysis is uniquely split into separate domestic and commercial reports, recognising the fundamentally different dynamics and market sizes of each segment.
The analysis finds that, despite ongoing challenges in global construction activity and continued consumer caution, the market is showing signs of stabilisation. In 2025, around 3.5 million hydronic heat pumps were sold globally, representing modest growth of 4% following a difficult 2024.
Over the same period, just under 13 million boilers were sold, 90% of which were gas. This indicates that the boiler market remains broadly flat. However, it still equates to 3.8 boilers sold for every heat pump, underlining the scale of the existing installed base and the gradual pace of transition.
Socrates Christidis, Research Manager, Heating and Renewables at BSRIA, said: “The market is not moving in a straight line. What we are seeing is a sector responding to a complex mix of pressures from energy prices and security concerns, through to evolving policy frameworks and the practical realities of installation. The transition is happening, but the boiler market is in a phase of managed decline, rather than sharp contraction.”
With around 200 million boilers currently in operation worldwide, approximately half of which are older non-condensing units, demand is now largely driven by replacement and retrofit activity rather than new build.
In mature markets such as Europe and North America, replacement and retrofit accounts for the vast majority of demand, supported by the reliability, familiarity and lower upfront cost of boiler systems.
However, over the long term, the market is expected to contract gradually, with BSRIA forecasting a compound annual growth rate of –2% for fossil fuel boilers between 2019 and 2029.
Following a challenging period, the heat pump market is showing early signs of recovery. While the new-build sector continues to support adoption, the most significant long-term opportunity lies within existing building stock. By 2029, hydronic heat pumps are expected to account for around 12% of activity within the replacement and retrofit market, rising from a relatively low base.
A central finding is that the replacement and retrofit segment is now the defining battleground for the global heating market. Around 73% of total heating demand globally is driven by replacement, rising to over 90% in mature markets.
This shift is intensifying competition between boilers, heat pumps, hybrid systems and district heating, particularly as the replacement market becomes increasingly competitive.
